US wholesale prices rise in latest sign of stubborn inflation as oil prices continue to climb
WASHINGTON (AP) — Wholesale inflation picked up last month after cooling earlier this summer as higher oil and gas prices stemming from the Iran war keep costs elevated.
The Labor Department’s producer price index — which captures inflation before it reaches consumers — rose 5.4% in August from a year ago, up from 4.8% in July, the government said Thursday. Annual wholesale inflation peaked this year at 5.9% in May after the Iran conflict raised energy costs. On a monthly basis, wholesale prices increased 0.4% from July to August, after a 0.1% increase the previous month.
Inflation has shown some signs of easing in recent months but is still high, frustrating consumers who are struggling with more expensive gas, groceries, clothing and other essentials. U.S. oil prices topped $100 a barrel Thursday on renewed fighting in the Middle East, while President Donald Trump has intensified a trade war with Canada, a sign tariffs still could push up costs. Rising prices pose a political problem for the Trump administration and Republicans running in the midterm elections.
In a striking acknowledgment Wednesday, Trump said that oil prices likely won’t come down until after U.S. midterm elections, but added that prices will fall immediately after Nov. 3.
“Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” Trump said. “I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm.”
The cost for a regular gallon of gasoline has soared 44% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February, according to data from the AAA. Diesel, which is used in manufacturing, shipping and transportation, and can have an outsized role in producer and consumer prices, has rocketed 59% higher in that same time frame.
Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 0.2% from July to August, the same as the previous month. Compared with a year ago, core prices rose 4.6%, up from 4.2% in July.
Energy prices were a big driver of last month's increase as fighting in the Middle East flared. The wholesale price of diesel soared 24.1% just from July to August. It has risen nearly 78% from a year earlier. Diesel fuel is used in large cargo trucks for shipping goods all over the country, and could make groceries, clothes and other items more expensive. Shipping prices rose 2.3% just last month.
Other items that jumped in price include airfares, hospital care, and electronic components, which have been lifted by rampant spending on AI data centers. Food prices ticked up just 0.1% last month, a potential signal that grocery costs could cool. Electric utility prices declined, too.
Thursday's figures will come under particularly close scrutiny because they could help determine whether the Federal Reserve raises its short-term interest rate at a policy meeting next week. Data from the producer price index helps calculate the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which will be released Sept. 30.
Airfares, hospital care and physician services all grew more expensive last month, with airfares jumping 4.2%. Those measures are all included in the Fed's preferred gauge and their increases could make a rate hike more likely.
With wholesale inflation “still looking relatively hot, the Fed seems likely to hike this year even if it doesn’t pull the trigger this month,” wrote Stephen Brown, chief North America economist for Capital Economics.
Even more important is Friday’s consumer price index report, the government’s highest-profile inflation release. Figures from that report are also used to compile the Fed’s preferred measure of costs. Economists believe that report could show core prices cooled in August. Some Fed officials have said that if Friday’s CPI is high, they would lean toward a rate hike at the central bank’s meeting next week. But if it comes in relatively low — as it did in June and July — they would support keeping rates on hold.
The Fed’s main goals are supporting maximum employment and combating inflation by keeping prices stable. It raises borrowing costs to cool spending and slow inflation.
Fed chair Kevin Warsh said in a high-profile speech late last month that the central bank needs to be “confident that underlying inflation is moving” to its 2% objective. “Otherwise, we have work to do,” comments that have led many economists to expect a rate hike next week.
Yet last Thursday, Fed governor Christopher Waller, echoing some other Fed officials, suggested that if Friday’s inflation report shows price increases cooling, then he would support keeping rates where they are. Waller is one of the 12 officials who vote on each Fed rate decision.
Another key concern for the Fed is whether inflation is driven mostly by one-time factors such as more expensive oil and gas, or if higher prices are spreading more broadly through the economy. Warsh noted in his remarks two weeks ago that more than half the 199 categories of goods and services the government tracks have recorded price increases of at least 3% compared with a year ago, an unusually high number.
© Copyright The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in this news report may not be published, broadcast or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
